Real estate CEO: Record-low housing inventory is 'freaking us out'

Housing inventory continues to drop amid tight credit and a growing tendency toward becoming a landlord. Homes in April sold the fastest since Redfin began tracking the market in 2010.

The number of homes for sale in America has been falling steadily for the past year, but the situation is apparently getting much worse as spring demand heats up.

"The inventory is reaching historic lows. It's never declined faster than it did last month. It's freaking us out — it's affecting our business; it's limiting our sales," said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Seattle-based Redfin, a real estate firm. "We're going to be fine in terms of market share, but I think the overall industry for the first time is seeing sales volume really limited by the inventory crunch."

Kelman started Redfin more as a technology company and touts his ability to track closely the more than 80 metropolitan markets it covers. He blames the lack of inventory on a new dynamic in housing.

"It's a new landlord nation where everybody is renting out their basement. When somebody moves up they don't sell their old place, they rent it out to somebody else, and it's because they want to keep that 30-year mortgage for 30 years, and it's because they can easily find somebody on Airbnb who will take the place," Kelman said.

Homes in April sold the fastest since Redfin began tracking the market in 2010. The typical home went under contract in just 40 days, 10 days faster than April 2016. As a result, 1 in 4 homes sold above their list price, which is the highest percentage Redfin has recorded.

Home prices continue to move higher as well, but, "It's not a bubble," said Kelman emphatically, who cites tight credit as keeping the bubble at bay.

Inventory of homes for sale fell about 7 percent nationally in March, compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Like most, Kelman blames the problem on a lack of new construction. On the single-family side, homebuilders are still putting up 18 percent fewer homes than the 25-year average.

"Cranes fill the sky in every town, but they're building office buildings," he said, noting that while employment is going up, there's no commensurate increase in the number of houses. In fact, he added, when people do construct housing, they're opting to build apartment complexes because tight credit is keeping many would-be buyers out of the market. "There is so much demand in terms of rent that it doesn't make sense to build properties for sale."

Diana Olick - CNBC

More buyers snap up homes before possible interest rate increase

Buyers continue to gobble up Florida’s declining single-family home inventory.

Here in Orlando, sales of single-family homes increased by 10.6 percent, going higher than the statewide average. Condo sales increased 18.4 percent, as previously reported by Orlando Business Journal.

Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 25,921 last month. Of that amount, 2,707 were in Orlando.

Florida Realtors President Maria Wells attributes the strong sales to higher demand and motivated buyers taking action before interest rates can rise higher. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.2 percent in March 2017, up from 3.69 percent a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes last month was $231,900, up 10.4 percent from the previous year, according to the Florida Realtors.

Orlando’s overall median home price is $217,000, 11.3 percent above the March 2016 median price of $195,000, about $15,000 below the national average.

Sarah Aslam, Staff Writer - Orlando Business Journal

5 Ways Trump’s Presidency Affects the Real Estate Market

It’s no secret that the real estate market has been on a tear in the early part of 2017. But does President Trump have anything to do with it?

First, let’s take a look at the numbers. The supply of homes on the market is incredibly lean, according to Realtor.com, which has forced home prices higher. In February, homes sold 5% faster than they did in the same month a year ago, and five days faster than they did in January. The median list price remains at $250,000 – 9% higher than one year ago.

Although demand is higher, interest rates are rising. During the final week of February, the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage with conforming loan balances below $424,100 sat at 4.3% – still a bargain when compared to historical rates over time, but significantly higher than February 2016, when rates averaged 3.66%.

Against this landscape, experts say that Trump's presidency has already had an effect and will continue to influence real estate markets. Here is a look at five ways in which the president's influence is being felt – for good and for bad.

1. Higher Interest Rates
President Trump has made it clear that he’s not a fan of the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low. The Fed has indicated that rates will continue to rise as the economy strengthens. Higher interest rates are great for investors, but for home buyers it means larger mortgage payments, and that will almost certainly slow the growth of the housing market. (For more, read: Can President Donald Trump Impact Mortgage Interest Rates?)

Thanks to a drop in interest rates during the last week of February, mortgage applications rose 5.8%, but that is expected to be short lived, say economists. And although the housing market is full-speed-ahead, the number of mortgage applications is still 45% lower now than it was at this time last year. There’s no doubt that as interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall.

2. Not Enough Workers
The demand for new homes is high, in part, because the nation’s home builders can’t find enough workers. Trump’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants could be making the problem worse. That’s because the construction industry has a large number of undocumented workers, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.

As the border tightens, the problem may only get worse, unless America can quickly train people with these construction skills.

3. Less Immigrant Demand
It may be surprising to learn that a 2013 study estimates that immigrants will account for 32.2% of household growth and 35.7% of growth in homeowners. What happens if the borders tighten and the immigrant population is smaller? Some experts believe that while this is a long-term effect, removing even a portion of this market could have a negative effect on home prices.

4. Freer Market – Higher Demand 
If President Trump gets his way, Americans will pay less in taxes. That’s a lofty goal and one that could come in any number of forms. But if it were to happen, that would certainly create higher demand in the housing market. Paying less in taxes means more discretionary income and more money to commit to a mortgage payment.

Although every personal finance guru will beg consumers to save and invest the extra money, the housing market will be a large beneficiary of it.

5. A Rising Stock Market Equals Higher Demand 
There’s no doubt that Trump has had a giant-size effect on the stock market, which has experienced more than double-digit percentage gains since the election. Most investors would be happy to see a fraction of that in a given year. Along with a rising stock market comes rising optimism. And that can translate to increased home buying. Whether the stock market is an accurate barometer of economic health has been the subject of a host of financial talk show debates. Either way, consumers may feel (what may turn out to be) a false sense of security while the bull market rages on. What goes up on Wall Street will eventually correct itself, potentially leaving some consumers overextended.

The Bottom Line
Since taking office, President Trump has made a lot of people a lot of money, and the real estate market can count itself as one of the recipients. But experts believe that some of his policies might serve to slow that market over time.

No stock market can keep up this growth pace forever. Whether it is President Trump, Clinton, Bush or anybody else, the Wall Street bull market will eventually come to an end, and solely blaming the person occupying the White House wouldn’t be fair or accurate.

By Tim Parker, Investopedia

Zillow ranks U.S. cities where people want to live - or leave

Residents of Washington, D.C., Miami, Detroit, Columbus, & Cincinnati want out — and not many house-hunters want in.

Meanwhile, Seattle, Tampa and Portland are popular targets for homebuyers who live elsewhere as well as residents who already live in those cities.

That's according to Seattle-based Zillow, which has analyzed searches from house-hunters to figure out which U.S. cities residents want to leave and where they want to stay.

By comparing the locations of its users with the cities that they're searching, Zillow has charted cities based on popularity with outsiders and popularity with current residents.

Here in Orlando, the study shows that more than 55 percent of Zillow page views from the metro area are for homes within the local market, according to the data. Explore the map below.

"Florida markets including West Palm Beach, Orlando, and Tampa are popular not only for searchers from Florida, but also from the Northeastern part of the country, likely because Florida is a common retirement destination for people in the Northeast," the report said.

Housing markets in Minneapolis and New York City show faint interest from outsiders but a strong majority of Zillow traffic coming from inside the city limits, showing residents want to stay in town with their next home purchase.

Casey Coombs, Staff Writer - Business Journal

Orlando among top cities for millennials

Orlando is one of the top three cities for millennials, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

The average share of the 25- to 34-year-old population in the U.S. is 13 percent, but in the top markets, the average share is 14 percent. Salt Lake City came in at No. 1 on the list, followed by Miami and Orlando. No other Florida metros made the top 10.

“High job growth in markets such as Orlando, Seattle and Miami, and the power of affordability in places like Albany and Buffalo are making these markets magnets for millennials,” said Javier Vivas, manager of economic research for Realtor.com. "But what really stands out is that all these markets already have large numbers of millennials, which translates into strong populations of millennial home buyers.”

Here's what Realtor.com had to say about Orlando:

The draw: Downtown Orlando is becoming a hot area and offers easy access to public transportation, shopping and dining, as well as a proximity to many jobs.

Millennial hotspots: Thornton Park, located just east of downtown has also become popular among millennials who are looking to live in a unique historic neighborhood with cobbled streets and lined with bungalows.

The stats: Millennials account for 14.6 percent of the total population in Orlando. Homes are affordable here and only require 34 percent of income. The unemployment rate is below the national average at 4.4 percent. To come up with its rankings, Realtor.com analyzed the 60 largest markets in the U.S. and compared the share of millennial page views in each area to the national average. Markets were ranked based on their comparison to the national average. Page view data included in this analysis covers the period from August 2016 to February 2017.

Here are the top 10 markets:

Salt Lake City
Miami
Orlando
Seattle
Houston
Los Angeles
Buffalo, N.Y.
Albany, N.Y.
San Francisco
San Jose

Cindy Barth - Editor, Orlando Business Journal

Pending Home Sales in U.S. Spike 5.5 Percent in February

According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales rebounded sharply in February to their highest level in nearly a year and second-highest level in over a decade. All major regions saw a notable hike in contract activity last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, jumped 5.5 percent to 112.3 in February 2017 from 106.4 in January 2017. Last month's index reading is 2.6 percent above a year ago, is the highest since last April (113.6) and the second highest since May 2006 (112.5).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says February's convincing bump in pending sales is proof that demand is rising with spring on the doorstep. "Buyers came back in force last month as a modest, seasonal uptick in listings were enough to fuel an increase in contract signings throughout the country," he said. "The stock market's continued rise and steady hiring in most markets is spurring significant interest in buying, as well as the expectation from some households that delaying their home search may mean paying higher interest rates later this year."

Added Yun, "Last month being the warmest February in decades also played a role in kick-starting prospective buyers' house hunt."

Looking ahead to the busy spring months, Yun expects to see continued ebbs and flows in activity as new supply struggles to replace listings that are going under contract at a very quick pace. This is especially the case at the lower- and mid-market price ranges, where choices are minimal and prices are being bid higher by multiple offers.

"The homes most buyers are in the market for are unfortunately the most difficult to find and ultimately buy," said Yun. "The country's healthy labor market is translating to greater job security, but affordability is not improving because home prices in some areas are still outpacing incomes by three times or more because of tight supply. How much new and existing inventory there is on the market this spring will determine if sales can reach their full potential and finally start reversing the nation's low homeownership rate."

Existing-home sales are forecast to be around 5.57 million this year, an increase of 2.3 percent from 2016 (5.45 million). The national median existing-home price this year is expected to increase around 4 percent. In 2016, existing sales increased 3.8 percent and prices rose 5.1 percent.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 3.4 percent to 102.1 in February, and is now 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 11.4 percent to 110.8 in February, but is still 0.6 percent lower than February 2016.

Pending home sales in the South climbed 4.3 percent to an index of 127.8 in February and are now 4.2 percent above last February. The index in the West increased 3.1 percent in February to 97.5, but is still 0.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Monsef Rachid - World Property Journal

3 Crucial Reasons You Should Buy a Home Before 2017 Ends

Buying a house in 2017 will feel kind of like you’ve jumped onto the subway just as the doors were closing. Your heart’s pounding and you’re winded from the race, but you made it—just in time.

OK, so maybe that’s a little exaggerated. But here’s the thing: Interest rates have begun to rise and will likely climb higher. Inventory is low and could shrink more. And home prices? Well, home prices are increasing—and they’re not predicted to fall any time soon.

If you don’t jump aboard the real estate train now, you might be too late.

“It’s tough to buy a home today in most places in the country because there are so few homes for sale,” says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com®. “But if you wait to buy, then you’re gambling that the market will be better for you to purchase in the future.”

And that’s not a smart gamble, our real estate experts say. If you’ve been toying with the idea of buying, or you anticipate a life change that might force you to move—such as a new baby or a job transfer—you should be “buying as urgently and as soon as possible,” Smoke says.

So finish reading this, then start looking for a house. Here’s why.

1. Rates are rising

In 1981, when mortgage rates hit 18% and seemed to rise every day, single-digit rates seemed like an impossible dream.

Last August, however, rates on 30-year mortgages bottomed out at 3.55%. Now that the Federal Reserve finally decided to raise its key interest rate, mortgage rates have been climbing slowly. Today, the average rate is just above 4%; by 2019 or 2020, rates could easily climb to 6%.

“All signs point to this trend continuing,” says Richard DeNapoli, managing director for Coral Gables Trust and a former Florida real estate commissioner.

Before you freak out, take heart: Rising rates aren’t necessarily a deal breaker for buyers. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) calculated that a rise from 4.2% to 5% would increase average monthly mortgage payments by $90—not nothing, but not a catastrophe, either. And if you take the long view, those higher rates are still historically low.

“For buyers there still is opportunity,” says Danielle Hale, managing director of housing research for the NAR. “For those who are still able to get into the market, these low rates continue to be helpful.”

Another upside: When rates go up, competition and prices often go down.

“I’d tell buyers not to panic, because higher mortgage rates eventually cause sellers to be more flexible on pricing,” DeNapoli says.

2. Inventory is shrinking

In November 2016, there were only 1.85 million homes for sale. That’s a nearly 10% drop from the year before. And it continues a trend of steady decline since just before the housing crash, when inventory peaked.

Real estate experts predict that inventory will continue to shrink, at least for the foreseeable future. That means that in most areas of the country, buyers have more homes to choose from today than they will next year.

Or even next month. If you get moving now (during the winter, which is largely considered to be real estate’s off-season), you’ll have less competition for those homes than you will in the peak spring and summer months.

Bottom line: Every day you wait to start looking for a new home, you face stiffer competition for fewer homes.

“If you think it’s bad right now, wait until April to August,” Smoke says.

3. Home prices are still rising

The bad news for buyers is that home prices now stand higher than before the 2007 crash, increasing 5% from 2015 to 2016. And housing experts expect an additional 2% to 3% jump in 2017, DeNapoli says.

“Prices continue to go up; we have yet to see that ceiling,” says Trevor Levin, a real estate agent with Nourmand & Associates in Los Angeles. “I think they have room to grow.”

How high prices will rise and how long they’ll remain high is anyone’s guess. Rising mortgage rates and the new Trump administration have introduced “uncertainty” into the real estate market, Levin says.

“And uncertainty is never ideal,” he says.

The good news? If you jump into the market pronto, you just might make it before those doors close.

Lisa Kaplan Gordon - Realtor.com

4 Signs Now’s the Right Time to Sell Your Home

Not sure when to sell your house? If you’ve been on the fence, we’ve got good news: It’s a great market for sellers! Limited inventory continues to drive home prices up, and the latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows that half of recently sold properties were on the market for just 39 days.

Of course, the decision of when to sell your home isn’t solely based on market conditions. You have to take your personal situation into account—and that’s where expert advice comes in handy.

We asked Linda Domis, a Los Angeles-area real estate Endorsed Local Provider (ELP) with 38 years of experience, to share her advice.

“Now is a great time to sell,” she says. “Longer days during daylight saving time mean more hours for buyers to look at property. With less stress, buyers can think about a move more comfortably.”

Here are a few other things to keep in mind before planting a For Sale sign in your yard.

You’re Out of Debt With Cash in the Bank

If you didn’t have all your financial ducks in a row your first time around the home-buying block, you probably learned a few things the hard way. Like the fact that Murphy can smell broke from miles away. If it can go wrong, it will! Put those lessons to good use and be a money-smart home buyer the next go-round!

Start by taking a hard look at your finances. If you’ve paid off all your nonmortgage debt and have three to six months of expenses in your emergency fund, that’s a good sign you’re financially mature enough to purchase a home again.

You’ve Got Equity on Your Side

When the housing bubble burst, home values plummeted, sending many mortgages underwater. Thankfully, the tide has turned: According to CoreLogic, only 8% of homes with a mortgage had negative equity at the beginning of 2016. If you’re not sure where your equity stands, ask an experienced real estate agent to run a free comparative market analysis (CMA) to determine an approximate value for your home.

Linda says it’s worth the sale “if your home has recovered enough value to provide at least 20% equity for your next purchase.” Why is 20% the magic number? Because putting 20% or more down on a home keeps private mortgage insurance (PMI) at bay. That could save you hundreds of dollars each year!

Your Home No Longer Fits Your Lifestyle

Another factor to consider is how well your home meets your everyday needs. Perhaps you could use another bedroom (or even two) to accommodate your growing family. Or maybe your kids have all moved out and you’re ready to downsize.

“Empty nesters can really benefit from selling now while rates are low,” Linda says. “It’s very freeing to sell a large home, pay cash for a smaller one, and invest the rest in your retirement.”

Whether you’re sizing up or down, make sure your mortgage fits your budget. Dave recommends keeping your monthly payment to 25% or less of your take-home pay on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage.

You Can Actually Afford the Move

Don’t get so carried away by the excitement of your next home that you forget to account for the cost of leaving your current one. Hiring professional movers? Save up cash to cover the cost of packing up and hauling your stuff away.

You should also invest a little to get your current place ready for prime time. Linda recommends focusing your home-improvement dollars on these areas:

Paint: “Paint is the number-one investment when upgrading,” she says. “Buyers love the look—and smell—of fresh paint.” Curb appeal: You only get one chance to make a first impression. Linda suggests a three-pronged approach:
“Plant flowers, trim shrubs, and paint the trim.” Kitchen and bath: “You don’t need expensive appliances or countertops, but new faucets and fixtures go a long way,” she says. Want a bonus tip that doesn’t cost a dime? Clear out the clutter. “Neat closets and tidy shelves make your home look larger!” Linda adds.

Make the Right Choice for You

There’s no single formula for determining when to sell your house. Partner with a pro you can trust to provide honest advice so you can do what’s best for you and your budget. A good agent puts service before sales—but knows how to get things done when it’s time to sell.

Original Article - DaveRamsey.com

How to Avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)

Lenders require private mortgage insurance (PMI) on conventional loan programs to protect themselves against potential loss if you stop making payments. You may be thinking that there must be a way to avoid being responsible for paying insurance premiums on something, hopefully, your lender will never need.

The simplest way to avoid paying PMI is to make a down payment that is large enough to cancel out the need for insurance in the first place.

Easier said than done, right? So, what else can you do to avoid paying for private mortgage insurance?

FIND A LOW OR NO DOWN PAYMENT OPTION
Specifically, find one that does not require private mortgage insurance as a condition of getting the low or no down payment. Look for loans that are guaranteed or backed by a government agency such as the VA, USDA or FHA. In lieu of requiring private mortgage insurance, there may be guarantee fees, funding fees, or other mortgage insurance required to protect the agency backing the loan.

REQUEST A CANCELLATION
It’s important that you keep a close eye on your loan’s principal balance because it will be an indicator of when you might be able to request that your lender remove the private mortgage insurance from your loan.

Once your balance drops below 80% of your home’s value or below 80% of your home’s current market value, you can submit a request in writing asking if you can have your PMI cancelled.

Depending on the type of loan you have and what conditions are in your private mortgage insurance policy, you may be required to make a certain number of payments before PMI can be cancelled. You may also be required to have a payment history free of late payments for a specific number of months. For example, no 30 days or more late payments in a 12-month period and no 60 days or more late payments in a 24 month period.

Every year, you’ll receive a notice that shows where you are with your loan balance and potential for PMI cancellation. Lenders have to monitor this closely themselves because they’re required to terminate PMI per the Homeowners Protection Act of 1998 once your balance reaches 78% of the purchase price or appraised value at the time of purchase, whichever is lesser. As soon as the lender confirms you’re eligible to have your PMI cancelled, they’ll send you a letter. It may also come from a subservicers on their behalf.

If you’re not close to the 80% loan-to-value target and you’ve made improvements on the home, you may want to get an appraisal. If your remaining loan balance multiplied by the factor 1.25 is less than the appraised value, you can request consideration for PMI cancellation.

ASK ABOUT LENDER PAID MORTGAGE INSURANCE (LPMI)
In exchange for a small increase in your mortgage interest rate, lenders may be able to take care of the private mortgage insurance. Unlike regular private mortgage insurance that you pay for, lender-paid private mortgage insurance cannot be cancelled per your request. Before selecting this option, you’ll want to do some math to determine what’s best for you and your budget long-term.

It may be appealing to not have a monthly PMI premium; however, the increased interest rate may result in you paying more in interest over the life of your loan.

On the flip side, interest is a tax write-off, whereas MI isn’t always a write-off if you exceed a certain income bracket.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example:
John and Jane both get a $225,000, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Both are required to have mortgage insurance. John opts for the traditional monthly-paid private mortgage insurance that’s included in his mortgage payment. Jane negotiates a higher interest rate in order to have her lender pay the private mortgage insurance as a single premium to the private mortgage insurance company.

As seen in the table below, John has a lower principal and interest payment than Jane. However, he pays $84 a month in PMI, which raises his overall mortgage payment.

Once John’s loan meets the requirements to drop PMI, his payment is reduced by $84 per month. Jane’s loan is not eligible for PMI removal. After the loan reaches maturity with all 360 payments being made, John pays $417,509 for his $225,000 loan. Because of the higher interest rate, Jane pays a bit more for the same loan.

REFINANCE
If your home value has increased but you don’t meet the requirements to cancel the PMI, you may be able to refinance into a new loan that doesn’t require PMI.

Talk to [a loan officer] about the cost-savings, because there will be fees to do the refinance and you’ll want to make sure it’s worth it in the long run.

If paying for private mortgage insurance is making you hesitant to get a mortgage loan, please talk to a mortgage banker about ways to save for the down payment, down payment assistance programs, loans that don’t require PMI and how long you may need to pay PMI before you can cancel.

By: Beverly Darnell - Content Writer for Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group

Top 5 Reasons You Should Not For Sale By Owner

In today’s market, with home prices rising and a lack of inventory, some homeowners may consider trying to sell their home on their own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). There are several reasons why this might not be a good idea for the vast majority of sellers.

Here are the top five reasons:

1. Exposure to Prospective Buyers - Recent studies have shown that 94% of buyers search online for a home. That is in comparison to only 17% looking at print newspaper ads. Most real estate agents have an internet strategy to promote the sale of your home. Do you?
   .
2. Results Come from the Internet - Where did buyers find the home they actually purchased?
   The days of selling your house by just putting up a sign and putting it in the paper are long gone. Having a strong internet strategy is crucial.
   
• 51% on the internet
• 34% from a Real Estate Agent
• 9% from a yard sign
• 1% from newspapers
  .
3. There Are Too Many People to Negotiate With - Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate if you decide to For Sale By Owner:
• The buyer who wants the best deal possible
• The buyer’s agent who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
• The buyer’s attorney (in some parts of the country)
• The home inspection companies, which work for the buyer and will almost always find some problems with the house
• The appraiser if there is a question of value
  .
4. FSBOing Has Become More And More Difficult - The paperwork involved in selling and buying a home has increased dramatically as industry disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. This is one of the reasons that the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 8% over the last 20+ years.
   
   The 8% share represents the lowest recorded figure since NAR began collecting data in 1981.
   .
5. You Net More Money When Using an Agent - Many homeowners believe that they will save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real estate agent’s commission. The seller and buyer can’t both save the commission.

Studies have shown that the typical house sold by the homeowner sells for $185,000, while the typical house sold by an agent sells for $245,000. This doesn’t mean that an agent can get $60,000 more for your home, as studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. However, it does show that selling on your own might not make sense.

Bottom Line
Before you decide to take on the challenges of selling your house on your own, sit with a real estate professional in your marketplace and see what they have to offer.

The KCM Crew - For Sellers, FSBO's